Breakfast: Unusual or not?

The origin of the reputation

L“The best known confirmation was the confirmation of the Minister of Health of the United States Robert F. Kennedy J – WH is known for his antivaccin positions. In response to journalist 26th February on the creation of measles in Texas, which has just made his first death, said” it is not unusual.

RFK is not the only one who has assessed that the situation is not unusual: rapid social network research has revealed several commentators in recent weeks who are also trying to minimize its gravity in response to the latest reports.

What do the numbers say

The World Health Organization defines as “confirmed hatch” confirmation by laboratory tests at least two cases that are “epidemiologically or virologically connected”.

Since 2001, the Ministry of Health has identified six measles (2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, February-June 2024 and December 2024). Concomitant hatching since mid -December is therefore the second in less than 12 months.

Since 2001, when there is no hatching, Quebec has noticed 0 to 4 cases of measles per year. For the most part, these are people who have acquired this disease abroad.

In the case of hatching years, the most serious was the most serious (776 cases) followed by 2015 (159 cases) and 2007 (99 cases). It is therefore under average, but the fact that it is a second hatch in less than 12 months is unusual compared to the last quarter of the century.

In Ontario, hatching, which now exceeds 175 cases, has been running since October 2024. It originates in New Brunswick, where the end of this epidemic was ordered on January 7. However, most Ontario cases have been observed since January (61 new just 13 and 26 February). The vast majority was not vaccinated. Some cases were also recently reported in the neighboring Manitoba province.

Compared to Quebec, it is therefore much more important hatching. This is also very unusual for Ontario, as it identified only 101 cases between 2013 and 2023.

Finally, in all the United States, the number of cases in the long run is followed by an ascending trend. Between 2000 and 2010 he exceeded only twice hundred. While between 2011 and 2019, according to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), he turned or exceeded 200 cases six times (with a peak of 1274 cases in 2019). Covvid brought a rest (whether to introduce health measures such as distance and wearing a mask, or because of lack of screening tests). In 2024, however, the number of cases was 285. Texas, its 150 cases in just a month (the first warning occurred 23 January) is therefore very unusual.

Furthermore, if we calculate the number of hatches rather than the number of cases, as Minister Kennedy did, CDC – which defines them as 3 cases connected together or more – identified 16 in 2024, against only 4 in 2023.

The risk of measles death

Measles are caused by a highly contagious virus that spreads in the air when the infected person coughs, sneezes or speaks. However, the vaccine proved to be effective in preventing infection and its consequences: the effects of measles on the immune system cause children to die more often on other infectious diseases. Before the introduction of a vaccine against measles in the United States in 1963, there were 3 to 4 million cases per year, which caused 48,000 hospitalization and 400 to 500 deaths.

In Texas, the Ministry of Local Health announced 26 February of the death of “school age”. This is the first death caused by measles in the United States since 2015. In fact, it was declared the size of the United States in 2000, which was declared “eliminated” in 2000, the definition of “elimination” that it has not occurred for at least one year.

It is estimated that in 1 to 3 cases of 1000 infected child may die of respiratory and neurological complications.

In a report published on X, Minister Kennedy Retropedait 28 February: “I recognize the serious impact of this hatching on families, children and healthcare workers”. And in a letter published on the Fox website 2.

Connection between measles and not vaccinated

Almost all over the world, we can see that people with measles are extremely uncomfortable. That is why the decline in vaccination in North American children is feared by public health officials.

The latest data in Ontario on the degree of vaccination is subject to debate, but the rate is declining. In the case of the United States, we know that the region of Texas, where the origin began, had 18% “exceptions”, that is, 18% of parents who asked their child not vaccinated. Throughout the country, these applications for exceptions are often for religious reasons and in Texas doubled between 2018 and 2024, which were reported in early February Texas Tribune. In addition, it is part of the context of increased distrust of certain population segments in the face of vaccination or even in front of doctors. For example, in Louisiana, which is governed by the Republican Party, the local Ministry of Health has just announced that it will stop promoting vaccination campaigns.

Statistically, the hatch in Texas is repeated elsewhere sooner or later: the Florida vaccination rate (2) at the beginning of the school year 2023-2024, while in Georgia and Wisconsin, was only 83%.

Statement

What is happening in Texas and Ontario is truly unusual compared to statistics in recent decades. In addition, as elsewhere, there are a very high number of people who are not vaccinated among infected people.